U.S.-platform TrueCar is forecasting that the nation’s total new vehicle sales will reach 1,460,820 units in March 2021 — up 42% year-over-year and up 13% from February 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
They said the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales for March is estimated at 16.4 million units. Not counting fleet sales, the company anticipates that U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks will reach 1,260,416 units, which is an increase of 53% from a year earlier, and an increase of 10% from February 2021 — again, when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
“The pandemic’s dramatic impact on the automotive industry and U.S. economy at large began in the last two weeks of March 2020 when dealerships and OEM plants shut down and stay at home mandates rolled out, which gives us our first year-over-year sales compare,” said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. “Automotive sales dropped 38% from 2019, so it’s no surprise that we’re seeing total sales up 42% and retail sales up 53% when compared to March 2020.”
Looking at the year-over-year sales forecast, Woolard said domestic brands (such as General Motors and Ford) fared much better, since certain areas in the country that hold a majority of truck sales from these brands had not yet launched state-mandated stay-at-home orders at this point in 2020.
“In order to get back to a full recovery we need to see improvement in fleet sales,” said Woolard. “This month we expect to see further encouraging trends in fleet as commercial activity picks up as well as some rental fleets as travel slowly resumes.”
Average transaction prices (ATP) are anticipated to increase 3.3% or $1,185 from a year ago, and decline 0.6% or $231 from February 2021. TrueCar is also anticipating that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach approximately $54.8 billion for March this year — up 52% from a year ago, again based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate, and up 21% from last month.
“As consumers receive their stimulus checks and tax refunds, we expect demand for vehicles to increase,” said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President, OEM Solutions at TrueCar.
At the same time, she notes that production issues such as the global microchip shortage and a shortage of other core materials are affecting a number of OEMs, “and retailers are struggling to have enough supply to meet the strong demand.”
She said consumers who are very specific about the vehicle they want may need to be extra patient, and they will likely have a harder time finding their first choice of colour or trim.
