Canadian new vehicle sales of 146,925 units in August 2021, as estimated by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC), were down by 11.4% from the same month last year and 19.2% from August of 2019, which was the last comparable pre-pandemic reference point.
Estimated year-to-date sales of 1,160,029 vehicles are up 18.9% from the same period in 2020, thanks to strong performance earlier this year, but they are 13.2% below 2019 levels.
Adding emphasis to the current decline, the SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Rate) for the month fell back to just 1.62 million—the second-lowest monthly level of the year, according to DAC.
Supply limitations, primarily related to a worldwide shortage of microchips, continue to be the constraining factor as demand appears strong.
“Strengthening job numbers (another 93,000 jobs added in July) along with still-elevated savings (14.2% in the second quarter) are likely emboldening consumers,” according to Rebekah Young of Scotiabank Economics. “However, in the near term, supply is the binding constraint for auto sales.”
More production cuts can reasonably be expected in September and possibly into October, Young predicts, which translates into lean inventory and slower sales for dealers for the next few months.
Consequently, Scotiabank has lowered its 2021 sales forecast to 1.70 million units, noting that, as rolling auto production shutdowns persist, there is potentially more downside to the near-term outlook.
Some winners, some losers
Not all automakers are suffering equally, however. “DAC estimates show that certain manufacturers did actually increase sales from August 2020, whilst others, hit hard by supply chain shortages, saw dramatic declines,” said Andrew King, Managing Partner of DAC.
“Disparities in performance are the real story for the month, and will likely persist for the remainder of the year as the impact of the semiconductor shortages continue to vary greatly by model and by manufacturer,” he said.
Given that many automakers continue to report sales only quarterly rather than monthly, a complete breakdown of results won’t be available until the end of Q3.
Once again, of those that did report August results, Genesis showed the greatest percentage gains for the month, with sales up 415.7% from 2020 and 315.6% from 2019.
Lexus was next best in terms of percentage increase, up 27.8 for the month compared to last year, and 19.0% from 2019.
Subaru’s sales, the best-ever for August, increased by 10.9% from 202 and 23.7% from 2019, while Acura and Volvo each improved by 5.6% from 2020.
Mazda’s sales fell by 3.2% from a strong August last year but were up 7.8% from the same month in 2019.
Toyota’s August sales were off 4.4% from a year ago and 2.3% from 2019, while Honda’s fell by 5.3% and 20.2% for the same periods, respectively.
Kia’s August sales were down 9.0% from what was its best month ever a year ago, making this its second-best August ever, up 9.2% from 2019.
We’ll have detailed numbers for all manufacturers after the end of September.
