GERRY MALLOY SAYS THAT WHILE LOOKING FORWARD IS IMPORTANT, THE DIRECTIONS THE AUTO INDUSTRY WILL ACTUALLY TAKE STILL REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN
“Nobody can predict the future!” That may seem like a strange thing for Sheryl Connelly to say, given that her job title is Global Trends and Futuring manager for the Ford Motor Company. But she’s absolutely right — there are far too many variables in play to zero in on a single certainty. Or to bet the company’s future on just one possible outcome.
That’s why Ford, along with most of the rest of the world’s automakers, is not only researching but developing multiple different alternatives for such important features as powertrains.
Electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, conventional hybrids, diesels, natural gas engines, hydrogen fuel cells, even gas turbines — there may well be a place for any or all of them in the future. If you cover all probable bets, you’re almost sure to hit a winner. Unless it’s something else entirely — something as yet unforeseen.
Going forward, the probability that any one technology or fuel source will dominate the industry the way the gasoline engine did in the 20th century — at least after the invention of the electric starter — seems remote. Unless it continues to be the gasoline engine, which is not an unrealistic possibility, at least in the near term.
One of the problems people like Connelly have in assessing future possibilities, she says, is realizing “just how fast the future is coming at us.” Change has always been a constant but the pace of change today is truly unprecedented. Things we might expect to take years can occur in a matter of months. Or not! Change is not always in the direction expected.
THE POWER OF NECESSITY
A futurist’s task, Connelly says, is to look at multiple possibilities, assessing their probabilities and potential consequences and advising on strategies to deal with them. It’s a matter of challenging assumptions — of questioning what happens if our assumptions are wrong.
Consider, for example autonomous vehicles — self-driving cars. They’re technically feasible now — at least in limited circumstances. And automakers as disparate as Nissan and Tesla have promised to have them on the market by 2020, if not sooner.
But will it really happen? This may be a case where technology progresses more quickly than the public and political will to enable it. Not only will legislative pathways have to be cleared to permit the use of autonomous vehicles but there will have to be a consumer willingness to accept them. Are people really ready to entrust their entire safety and that of their families to their vehicles. Are our governments? Are you?
It’s answers to questions like those that will really determine the direction and pace of change — and define the future.
