New-vehicle sales in Canada were up for a second month in a row in November, breaking the up-down monthly pattern that has prevailed since April. Sales of 121,133 units were 4.4 per cent ahead of November 2010’s, keeping year-to-date sales of 1,470,962 vehicles 1.8 per cent ahead of last year.
It was the best monthly year-over-year result since June, the best result for November since 2006, the second best since the record year of 2002, an increase of 7.4 per cent over the 5-year average for November and the third consecutive month ahead of the 5-year average.
November’s SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) was in the 1.61-1.63 million range (per Scotiabank senior economist, Carlos Gomes and DesRosiers Automotive Consultants respectively). That’s down slightly from October, but it’s the second consecutive month over 1.6 million for the first time since mid-summer. And it brings the 6-month trailing-average SAAR up over 1.6 million for the first time in three years.
All in all, a positive sign
Nevertheless, says Dennis DesRosiers, the SAAR really hasn’t changed very much for the past 18 months. “What a stable SAAR tells us,” he says, “is that the automotive markets are performing well but there is a lot of hesitancy in the market so there isn’t a surge upwards. In today’s world maybe we should be pleased with stability. Of course it would be nice to see solid growth but all indicators point to a positive but very hesitant market going forward.”
With just a month to go, it’s looking like 2011’s total will come in somewhere close to 1.59 million, if December’s sales are near the five-year year average for the month. That would make it the best year since 2008, during which the market started off strongly but collapsed in the final quarter.
Imports regain strength
Contrary to the trend of recent months, import-brand sales rebounded strongly in November, up 10.7 per cent from last year. The Koreans led the way with a 12.8-percent increase, followed by a 12.0-percent surge by the Europeans and a 9.7-percent gain by the Japanese.
For the first time this year, both Honda (+17.9%) and Toyota (+20.6%) showed year-over-year gains for the month, reflecting a return to a more normal supply situation. Encouragingly, the results for both were not just ahead of last year but also their 5-year averages – Honda by 12.4 percent and Toyota by 20.6 percent.
Audi (+30.0%) showed the greatest year-over-year improvement, followed by Kia (20.7%), Toyota (20.6%) and BMW (19.6%).
Surprisingly, given its year-to-date strength, the biggest loser was Porsche (-43.5%), followed by Subaru (-21.6%) and Suzuki (-20.5%).
Results for the Detroit Three, as a group, were down by 2.9 per cent, which combined with the import increase, dragged their market share down to 43.1 percent for the month – a significant drop from their year-to-date average of 47.3 percent.
Chrysler fared best of the three, relative to last year, with a 6.3 per cent gain. Ford’s sales were down by 1.6 percent and General Motors’ by 10.8 per cent. Compared to their five-year averages, however, Ford (+8.1%) was the best performer, followed by Chrysler (+8.1%), while GM (-21.9%) remains well off its historic form.
On a monthly basis, GM’s market share was down to 14.8 per cent and year-to-date it’s just 15.3 percent – 2.1 per cent behind Ford and just 0.7 per cent ahead of Chrysler.
Continuing what has become the normal trend, truck sales (+6.7)% continued to lead those of passenger cars (+1.5%). Year-to-date sales were up by 4.7 per cent, with a market share of 56.0 per cent, while car sales were down by 1.8 per cent from year ago, with just 44.0 per cent market share.
Compared to five-year averages, truck sales were up by 16.2 per cent with passenger-car sales down by 15.1 per cent.
