May sales take a dive
New-vehicle sales in Canada fell by 3.8 percent in May, compared to the same month a year earlier, but that number understates the severity of the sales drop-off.
Until May, year-to-date sales had been up by 3.6 percent from 2010, so the swing from trend was almost double the steep decline in sales percentages. And in absolute numbers, May sales were the lowest for the month since 1997.
Even more disturbing is the drop in SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), which was in the area of 1.4 million, according to both Scotiabank and DesRosiers Automotive Consultants. The SAAR had been well above 1.6 million for the two months prior.
Compared to the five-year average for the month, May 2011 sales were down by 12.0 percent.
The drop was not totally unexpected, as the production cutbacks resulting from the Japanese disaster ultimately had an effect. Consequently, the bulk of the decline was experienced by Japanese brands.
Collectively, Japanese-brand sales accounted for just 26.8 percent of the market in May, compared to 32.3 percent for the four months previous.
Subaru (+5.7%) was the only Japanese nameplate to show a sales increase for the month. All the others suffered losses, the greatest being: Suzuki (-39.4%), Infiniti (-36.9%), Toyota (-32.9%), Lexus (-30.3%), and Acura (-27.3%).
The vehicle shortage will continue to depress sales through the summer, says Scotiabank senior economist, Carlos Gomes. However, he does expect a rebound once dealer lots are restocked later this year.
His assessment suggests that customers are holding back on purchases because of a shortage of Japanese products on the ground, rather than reflecting an overall softening of the market.
Non-Japanese brands
A look at May sales of non-Japanese brands seems to confirm Gomes’ assessment. Collectively, their sales were up by 5.4 percent from last year.
That said, both General Motors (-11.5%) and Ford (-2.6%) saw sales declines for the month, although Chrysler (+16.4%) made a solid gain. The addition of the Fiat brand accounted for 3.3 percent of that Chrysler margin.
Despite a slight sales decline, Ford maintained first place in sales for both the month and the year, with Chrysler moving past GM for second on both counts.
Continuing their hot streak, the Koreans once again posted solid gains: Kia (+20.9%), Hyundai (+10.7%). The latter outsold both Toyota and Honda to claim fourth place for the month, while Kia climbed past both Mazda and Nissan for sixth.
The Europeans also made gains, with Porsche (+60.1%) leading the way, followed by Volkswagen (+25.9%), Volvo (+19.9%), Audi (+19.1%), BMW (+15.1%), and Mercedes-Benz (+14.7%). Mercedes-Benz continues to lead BMW in the luxury-car race.
Best sellers
Total truck sales were down 1.4 percent in May, while passenger car sales fell by 6.5 percent. However, that split is closing.
In terms of vehicle types there appeared to be a seismic shift in buyer behaviour, beginning in April, as sales of fuel-efficient vehicles soared.
In an overall market that was up just 6.9 percent in April, sales of subcompact cars were up 17.1 percent, compact cars 11.3 percent and compact CUV/SUVs 16.6 percent.
Additionally, sales of intermediate CUV/SUVs, which are rapidly becoming much better than their predecessors in terms of fuel efficiency, also climbed by 26.3 percent.
Truck sales, on the other hand – specifically those of full-size pickups, which had been selling in droves – fell by 5.0 percent.
The anomaly on the truck side was full-size van sales, which were up 27.8 percent – surely a sign that the economy is well into recovery given that the bulk of those vehicles are typically for commercial use.
Year-to-date through May, passenger car sales are still down by 2.8 percent, while truck sales are up 5.8 percent.
Among individual models, Honda Civic was back on top in April, followed by Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Mazda3, Chevrolet Cruze and Volkswagen Jetta.
Year-to-date, Elantra remained in second place, ahead of Corolla, while Chevy’s Cruze bumped the Mazda3 out of fourth place.
Ford Fusion squeezed into the passenger car top ten, pushing out Toyota Matrix, but Hyundai Sonata continued to be the best-selling intermediate, ranking eighth for the month and ninth year-to-date.
On the truck side, Ford’s F-Series pickup continued its usual role as best-selling truck and vehicle overall.
Ram edged past the Dodge Caravan for second in the month of May, but not the year, and GMC Sierra remained solidly in fourth, with Dodge Journey surpassing Ford Escape for fifth on the month, though not year-to-date.
Toyota RAV4 bumped Chevrolet Silverado down to eighth in April, though it remained sixth YTD, followed by Honda CR-V and Hyundai Sonata.
