American consumers may be feeling less confident about the economy, but that has not stopped the U.S. new-vehicle market from maintaining its momentum.
According to Cox Automotive’s October forecast, released Oct. 27, new-vehicle sales are expected to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.1 million units, compared with 16 million in September and 15.7 million in October 2025.
The company expects sales volume to increase 3.6 per cent from September and 7.2 per cent year over year, although calendar differences are contributing to the anticipated gains.
October has 28 selling days, three more than September and one more than October 2025. Cox Automotive noted that seasonal adjustments complicate direct monthly comparisons, particularly as the sales pace historically slows during October.
“October sales should remain on a path the market has consistently followed since March, which is basically a low-mid 16 million pace,” said Jonathan Gregory, Senior Director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive, in a statement. “Healthy fleet sales, wealthier new-vehicle buyers and more access to credit are all keeping this market relatively strong in the face of many headwinds.”
Gregory said persistently high gasoline prices and historically low consumer confidence have had less impact on new-vehicle sales than might otherwise be expected. He suggested the financial position of today’s buyers may help explain that resilience, with more affluent consumers potentially less affected by inflationary pressures.
The forecast points to a U.S. market that has maintained a relatively consistent sales pace for much of 2026, even as affordability concerns and economic uncertainty continue to shape the broader consumer environment.
The U.S. outlook offers a neighbouring-market perspective on how purchasing power and access to credit may help sustain vehicle demand despite economic pressures.
