We’ve just come off my favourite weeks in the automotive calendar. The second week of February includes the CADA Summit, media day at the Canadian International AutoShow and VIP night, perhaps the most concentrated networking event of the year. It all highlighted what a strange moment we’re in.
To slightly tweak a little bit of Charles Dickens, “It is the best of times, it is the worst of times.”
Consider a few of the key segments from arguably the best CADA Summit in its 13-year history:
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, took us through an extensive demographic picture that clearly shows how the car buying public in Canada and elsewhere will change as a result of aging and shrinking populations. It’s been said that demographics give us a means to predict the future. Darrell gave shape to that, leaving us with a number of takeaways including the simple message that targeting small populations of young people without money makes little sense if it isn’t at least accompanied by efforts to target the much larger older demographic who do have money. That seems simple enough;
Darren Slind, President of Canada’s Clarify Group Inc. gave us a first look at research being done for CADA’s The Road Ahead: Canada’s Automotive Evolution. From Darren’s presentation, it’s clear there is much we do know about the future of automotive retailing in Canada. That doesn’t make implementation a slam dunk, but it does mean we have some clear targets at which to aim our efforts;
Glenn Mercer, one of our industry’s longtime research stalwarts, brought a similar message of clarity. Existential threats to the franchise model have largely receded. Future profitability looks stable. Four or five broad strategic thrusts create the potential for great upside.
After the uncertainties of the pandemic and what seemed to be the rising challenges from DTC and agency business models, the path ahead seems better understood and one that dealers can thrive in.
Happily, the foundations and data underlying all three speakers align. After the uncertainties of the pandemic and what seemed to be the rising challenges from DTC and agency business models, the path ahead seems better understood and one that dealers can thrive in. Ah, these are the best of times.
Ok, maybe not the best, but there is lots to feel very optimistic about. And yet…
The OEM panel made up of the Canadian heads of GM, Ford and Stellantis made clear just how much we don’t know, even among things we’ve taken for granted for decades up until a few weeks ago.
As panelists, OEM heads rarely offer drama. They are highly media and PR trained and very skilled at staying on message. If Kristian Aquilina (head of GM Canada), Bev Goodman (President & CEO of Ford Motor Company of Canada) and Jeff Hines (President, Canada Stellantis North America) were short on specifics this time, it was clearly because they don’t know them.
None of us do. How could they, when so much is being changed in such unprecedented ways?
The panel’s core message? Let’s try to stay optimistic, the people who have access to the administration are doing their best and we don’t know much more than you do how this will all turn out.
The day finished with a truly remarkable political panel. Three of Canada’s leading political analysts (Chantel Hébert, Vassy Kapelos and Rob Russo) did their best to offer insights and context into the most disrupted political landscape I have ever seen in my lifetime.
Their key takeaways?
Bet on Mark Carney to win the Liberal leadership race. By the time you read this I expect that will already be the case;
The insurmountable lead the Conservatives have enjoyed for months is suddenly not. In fact, a Léger poll released the day of the Summit had the Conservatives and Liberals in a dead heat, as long as the Liberals had Carney as the leader;
A Conservative win is still the most likely outcome, but things are now being driven by our friends (can we still say that?) South of the border. Given how the news changes from day to day, anything is possible.
And so, there we have it. A tale of our two realities. Possibly among the best of times, very possibly among the worst.
Now I better check the news. I expect things have changed considerably in the time it took me to write this. You can almost bet on it.
