PHEVs had a good year, but BEVs are playing the long game

A recent update from an IDTechEx technology analyst found that, even as electrification has hit troubled waters, plug-in hybrid alternatives (PHEVs) have experienced a stellar year. 

This comes as the electric vehicle market experiences weaker demand and the threat of trade tariffs looms heavy, along with an uncertain political and regulatory landscape that has left many people questioning the future of EVs, according to the analyst Mika Takahashi. 

Her opinion is covered in a recent report, Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric Cars 2025-2045: Technologies, Players, Regulations, Market Forecasts, which reveals how PHEVs are expected to grow by almost 75 per cent in 2024 compared to 2023, to more than 7 million units. Does this mean the future is hybrid? According to IDTechEx’s latest research, the answer is no.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to take 75 per cent of the car market by 2045, while PHEVs are anticipated to claim little more than 5 per cent — and IDTechEx is expecting the PHEV share of new sales to peak by 2028.

“The core issue with PHEVs is that they do not provide consistent and significant emissions reductions over a comparable diesel/petrol ICE car,” said the research firm in its update. The company found that, on average, “PHEVs had 267 per cent higher real-world emissions than stated by test figures — which largely happens if drivers do not charge their PHEVs often enough, driving in ICE mode vs. electric mode.”

They also stated that the findings are “spurring a policy change that means PHEVs will begin to detrimentally affect an OEMs CO2 fleet average.” As an example, Europe is aiming to have all new car sales be 100 per cent zero emissions by 2035 — but that excludes PHEVs. Although policy is not the core driver in all regions/countries (such as in China), comparisons or similarities can be observed when looking at Canada.

It is certainly food for thought for vehicle manufacturers in North America and dealers eyeing the trends of electrification.

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