What would a leadership change in the U.S. mean for the transition to EVs?

Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor of Minnesota Tim Walz enter the stage at a rally in Liacouras Center at Temple University in Philadelphia, PA on August 6, 2024
The North American automotive industry is extremely well integrated, which can be characterized by production capacities being spread out around the continent and by overall supply distribution being conceptualized regionally more than nationally.
What that means is that the United States, by being the most important consumer base out of the three countries, plays an immense role in dictating the general direction of key decisions made by the automotive industry.
Like many things in the world, this sector goes where the U.S. market wants it to go. To be fair, it is obvious that auto dealers and a lot of consumers would thrive in an environment where pure market dynamics dictate pricing, supply, accessibility, variety, and quality.
Of course, there’s something that is inevitable in the real world, and that’s politics. When there are political changes of importance in the U.S., we Canadians have to pay close attention as these small variances between one political path and the other can have massive impacts for both national or provincial economies.
The effects of political directives for the automotive industry are particularly interesting when talking about the progressive transition towards an EV-dominant vehicle fleet.
This process, while being rooted in legitimate and important environmental ambitions, has been driven by politicians rather than the market.
In both the U.S and in Canada, policies of varying reach and impact have been implemented to prop-up consumer demand in purchasing an EV, and most brands have aligned, in different ways, their production capacities to this new movement. Auto dealers have followed suit and have invested millions of dollars in their businesses to be ready.
Key opinion leaders from both the American and Canadian automotive industry have voiced their concerns on how politically-driven projects will not succeed.
The effects of political directives for the automotive industry are particularly interesting when talking about the progressive transition towards an EV-dominant vehicle fleet.
If governments expect consumers to follow along because they hope EVs will become the dominant technology, they need to accept that many consumers still have to manage anxieties about access to charging infrastructure and usage in harsh conditions while dealing with the higher price points.
On the other hand, manufacturers have to constantly adjust output of EVs as interest for these products is far from being linear or predictable. Better charging environments and more incentives are perceived throughout the industry as the best way to positively influence demand, not policy and stringent regulations.
Now, the EV transition in itself is more political than other automotive topics, mainly because of the major behavioural changes it will lead to and also because of the partisan affiliations that are usually associated with this subject.
In this context, it is now obvious that a new Democratic Party candidate for the upcoming U.S. election could very well have a major effect on the general direction of the American transition to EVs, which would then inevitably affect the Canadian one. So, what can we expect from a Kamala Harris presidency?
Considering that Harris served in the Senate representing California and was also the state’s Attorney General, there should be a strong alignment between her policies as President and the pro-EV and anti-fossil fuel approach that has recently characterized her state.
She was one of the most active and supportive political voices behind the rise of California as a leader in terms of EV adoption and promotion in the United States, and she did by notably being of the early adopters of the Green New Deal — a failed legislation what would have guided the national economy 100 per cent to clean renewable energy by 2030.
In her 2020 campaign, when she ran for the Democratic Party leadership, she pledged to implement EV mandates almost identical to those introduced under Biden in the following years, which she of course supported.
Now, it seems evident that Harris, as the U.S. President would probably aim at expanding on what was accomplished in California, which will be inevitably difficult with the more rigid stances that many Republicans led states have taken in recent years.
In other words, the political context in the U.S. might make it way more difficult, for Harris as President, to put in motion some of her more aggressive environmental and EV policies — similarly to what President Biden has faced in the last years.
It is fair to assume that the result of the political frictions between the two parties might still lead to a progressive position on the EV transition, but the process will more than likely be characterized by lots of political back and forth, such as frequent reevaluations of emissions and EV adoption targets (like they did in California!).
While the Conservatives have been critical about the Trudeau-led EV mandates, it is still unclear what their approach to this now well implemented program would be.
In terms of understanding how the Canadian automobile market would be affected by a Harris presidency, it would probably feel like a status quo as many of the EV related policies she advocated for are directly in tune with what has been done in Canada.
The Biden administration, however, has done a good job at treating the EV question with a bit more flexibility and willingness to adjust — which has been in total contrast with how the Trudeau government has treated this policy item.

Pierre Poilievre meets supporters during his campaign for leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada in 2022.
We often hear how seismic the change would be for the EV transition if we get a North American political duo of a Trump and Pierre Poilievre, but an upcoming discussion will also have to be about the compatibility between Harris and Poilievre, who has a strong hold of the recent political polls here in Canada.
This analysis is currently hard to make considering that while the Conservatives have been critical about the Trudeau-led EV mandates, it is still unclear what their approach to this now well implemented program would be.
If the Americans lead the way in promoting EV adoption and production through Harris’s presidency, the Conservatives could choose a path where they let this propped-up EV supply flow into Canada and support the demand with more infrastructure investments instead of imposing adoption on consumers.
In fact, a pro-EV US approach with a more market-led Canadian strategy could potentially work well for consumers and auto dealers, but that’s if we do end up with that combination of political leaders.
Until then, we will see our fair share of political jousting and finger pointing. It’ll be interesting to see if EVs play as big a part in these debates as many experts expect them to be.
