With half-a-year down, so is the market for new cars
New vehicle sales in Canada ended the first half of 2019 the same way they started — in steady decline. June’s 185,741 new vehicle sales were down 7.2% from the same month last year — continuing a downturn that has now extended for 16 consecutive months.
The situation is no longer a case of simply not matching recent record numbers. The first half’s 980,107 sales were down by 5.5% from 2018’s already depleted numbers — which translates to more than 50,000 units. First-half sales, as well as those for Q2 and for June itself, were at their lowest point since 2015, based on data reported by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC). And there’s no sign of an upturn yet in sight.
Looking at the SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Rate) published by DAC, June’s figure of approximately 1.88-million is still relatively healthy. But it’s also the lowest figure, but one, since December, 2016.
In addition, while overall sales were down in earlier months this year, there was typically a robust mix of gainers and losers among the 26 automakers listed. In June, only two of them made gains.
Even light trucks, including crossovers and SUVs, which have been the bright spot in the sales picture so far, were down by 1.0% in June. Passenger car sales were down by 21.3%. For the year-to-date, light truck sales were off by 1.4% and cars by 15.1%, with trucks claiming 73.2% of the market to cars’ 26.8%.
“Looking at the glass half full, “said David Adams, president, Global Automakers of Canada, “if sales for the remainder of 2019 track along current levels, we will still have one of the better sales years ever in Canada.”
But, looking at the glass half empty, we probably haven’t seen the bottom of this cyclic downturn yet.
Ford strengthens its market lead
As has now become the norm, Ford topped the sales charts in June, with 30,325 vehicles sold, a decline of 2.7% in a market that was down even more. As a result, the Blue Oval extended its cumulative sales lead at mid-year, with 154,203 total sales, even though they were down slightly, by 0.9%, from 2018. In addition, Ford increased its market share by 0.7% to 15.7%.
Now solidly in second place, General Motors’ estimated June sales of 25,749 units were down by 6.8% from 2018 and its 132,903 total first-half sales were off by 14.2%, pulling GM’s market share down 1.3% to 13.6% — the biggest decline in the industry.
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles reclaimed third place for June, after ceding it to Toyota for a couple of months, with 21,566 sales – down 4.1% from a year ago. Cumulatively, at mid-year, FCA had sold 117,746 new vehicles, a 12.7% decline, giving up 1.0% of market share, to 12.0%.
Cumulatively, the Detroit Three’s sales were down by 4.5% in June, but that performance outpaced the rest of the market, which was off by 9.1%.
Not far behind FCA in fourth, Toyota sold 20,524 units in June, down by 1.5%, but its mid-year total of 108,047 units was up 3.3% from last year, pushing its market share up 0.9% to a high for the year of 11.0% — the greatest gain in the industry.
In fifth place, Honda’s June sales were down by 10.2% to 15,278 vehicles. Year-to-date sales of 87,298 units were off by 3.3% from their 2018 level but market share increased by 0.1% to 8.9%.
Hyundai stays strong
In sixth place for the month, Hyundai continued to outperform the market, with a 1.4% decline to 13,341 sales. But it still hasn’t overtaken Nissan for sixth-place on the year-to-date, in spite of a 5.9% sales gain to 64,920 units and a 0.7% share improvement to 6.6% — the second-best share gain in the industry.
Nissan ranked seventh in sales for the month, with its 13,185 sales off 11.1% from June 2018. It maintained sixth for the year-to-date, however, about 1,000 units ahead of Hyundai, with 65,9594 units sold. That’s a decline of 6.6% from last year, which pulled the Japanese brand’s market share down 0.1% to 6.7%.
Kia maintains eighth place with 8,050 sales in June, a decline of 4.1% from a year ago. But the Korean brand’s cumulative sales were still up by 3.9% to 38,261 units, bumping its market share by 0.3% to 3.9%.
Mazda stepped back into ninth place for the month with 6,025 vehicles sold, in spite of that being a 20.2% decline from 2018. It’s still 10th for the year to date, however, just behind VW, with 32,538 cumulative sales. That 15.8% decline cost Mazda 0.4% in market share, dragging it down to 3.3%.
Volkswagen ranked 10th in June sales with 5,570 units sold, down 18.4% from the same month last year. Year-to-date, however, VW’s sales were still up by 0.7%, to 32,899 units, keeping it just ahead of Mazda in ninth-place at mid-year, and bumping market share up by 0.2% to 3.4%
Subaru, in 11th-place, continued to outpace the market average with 5,317 sales, down just 0.6% from last year — good enough to improve the brand’s market share by 0.1% to 2.8%.
Mercedes-Benz retained 12th-place for the month, and premium-brand leadership, in spite of a 19.1% sales decline to 3.966 units and a year-to-date share decline of 0.4% to 2.2%. BMW and Audi continued to trail Mercedes-Benz in that order in both the luxury and overall rankings.
Winners and losers
On a percentage basis, the only overall gainers in June were Volvo (+1.0%) and Genesis (+0.6%).
The biggest losers, in percentage terms, were Maserati (-37.7%), Audi (-29.8%), Infiniti (-27.0%)%), Jaguar (-22.4%) and Mazda (-20.2%).
It should be noted that the total market sales figures reported here are now estimated, by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC), given General Motors’ recent decision to report actual sales only on a quarterly basis. These estimated monthly results are reconciled quarterly to reflect actual sales when GM reports officially.
