Cox Automotive recently released a forecast that expects new vehicle sales in the United States to rebound, following a slow January, with an anticipated seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.3 million.
They said a modest rebound is anticipated when February’s new-vehicle sales are reported next week, and that the SAAR would be an improvement from January’s 15.6 million sales pace — and an increase from last year’s 15.7 million level. Cox Automotive also anticipates that February will be the sixth month in a row with a year-over-year sales pace increase.
“New-vehicle sales have remained relatively strong since the election, finishing 2024 at the highest pace recorded since spring 2021,” said Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist at Cox Automotive, in a statement. “January sales dropped off from December, however, as cold weather across much of the country likely caused some buyers to delay their purchase.”
Chesbrough added that California fires and the inauguration of the U.S. President in January may have kept some shoppers at home. “Many of those buyers are likely to return this month, which will help lift the February sales pace,” he said.
Modest improvement in new vehicle sales is expected for 2025, with a forecast of 16.3 million units by the end of the year. This would be an increase from the 16.0 million units in 2024. Cox Automotive also expects positive economic growth and improved buying conditions to pave the way for a near 2 per cent gain.
However, Chesbrough stated that, although “we are still optimistic about market growth in 2025, policy changes regarding tariffs and battery electric vehicle credits by the new Trump administration could have significant negative effects on the current outlook.”
