Canadian new-vehicle sales of 134,544 units in September were down by 0.4 per cent, compared to the same month last year. That decrease continues the one-month-up, one-month-down trend that has prevailed since April, pulling year-to-date sales down slightly to 1.5 per cent ahead of 2010 through September.
Dennis DesRosiers, of DesRosiers Automotive Consultants characterizes it as, “a tough month and a worrisome month for the industry as the market just refuses to grow.”
In spite of the minor decline from last year, however, September’s SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) rebounded marginally from last month, to 1.59 million units, reversing a two-month decline.
“The automotive sales market in Canada has become increasingly difficult to read in these uncertain times,” says David Adams, Canadian auto dealer columnist and president of the Association of International Automobile Manufacturers of Canada (AIAMC).
“While sales were higher last month when consumer confidence plummeted, this month consumer confidence moved weakly in the right direction but vehicle sales moved weakly in the wrong direction,” he says.
Taking a historic perspective provides a marginally more positive interpretation. It was the second-best September since 2006, behind only last year, with sales 1.0 per cent ahead of their five-year average for the month, although year-to-date they are still 1.1 per cent below the average for that period.
From almost any perspective, sales have effectively flat-lined over the last two quarters, with a SAAR hanging just below 1.6 million. “This is good in that it is not declining like in the U.S. the last two quarters,” says DesRosiers. “No growth is better than negative growth, but it does indicate that there are still deep rooted problems in the Canadian market.”
Japanese brands still hurting
“The (September) downturn was concentrated among Japanese brands, with volumes for these automakers sliding 13 per cent, year-over-year,” notes Scotiabank senior economist Carlos Gomes. He attributes that situation to ongoing product shortages, as well as competitive pressures associated with a strong yen.
The only Japanese nameplates to improve their sales in September, over last year, were Acura (+12.4%) and Mitsubishi (+26.2%). Suzuki (-49.6%) led the decliners, followed by Honda (-22.4%), Nissan (-18.3%), Mazda (-15.1%),Subaru (-9.7%)Toyota (-5.2%) Lexus (-4.9%) and Infiniti (-3.1%).
“With most of these Japanese OEMs the poor performance reflects their year to date performance as well… in other words, this is not a one month exception to the rest of the year,” says DesRosiers. “Only Mitsubishi and Nissan are up on the year to date… all other Japanese brands are down.”
Most others make gains
Excluding the Japanese brands, volumes advanced 6 per cent above a year earlier, notes Gomes. Volkswagen (+41.3%) led that surge, followed by Kia (+34.1%), Audi (+26.3%) and Chrysler (+19.3%), all with double-digit gains.
Chrysler was the only one of the Detroit Three to make gains surpassing GM for second place on the month and closing to within 5000 units year-to-date.
Ford remained solidly in first place for the month and the year although its sales were down 3.0 per cent from a year ago. That comparison is misleading, however, for last September was an exceptionally strong month for the Blue Oval. Compared to five-year averages, Ford’s September 2011 sales were up more than 50 per cent.
GM’s were down by 6.1 per cent, from September 2010, and 40.1 per cent behind their five-year average.
BMW (+8.5%) improved more than Mercedes-Benz (+3.9%), selling more vehicles during the month and reducing the latter’s lead in the luxury-brand sales race less than 500 units, year-to-date.
As has become the norm, truck sales were up 2.2 per cent in September, with passenger cars (-3.7%) accounting for all the decline. Compared to five-year averages, truck sales were up by 20.5 per cent with passenger-car sales down by 17.2 per cent. Year-to-date shares shifted slightly, with trucks at 55.6 per cent and passenger cars 44.4 per cent.
