At first glance, retail sales in Canada during the first quarter of the year revealed significant variation. A closer inspection from DesRosiers Automotive Consultants shows a less diverse image.
In its most recent update, DAC said it’s important to consider the 2024 comparables against which this year’s data is measured.
“For example, for used vehicle dealers the first quarter of 2024 was notably weak as consumers could finally purchase a new vehicle without a months long wait — and as a result used vehicle prices fell sharply in Q1 2024,” said DAC.
On the other hand, they said gas prices climbed significantly in March 2024, which means the decline seen in March 2025 (and weak growth in the quarter as a whole) stems more from the changing price per litre than it does from growth/decline in gas volumes.
“Indeed, looking forward (to) the average price of gas across the country declining from $1.698 in April 2024 to $1.392 in April 2025 as the carbon tax was removed — we expect significant weakness in gas station retail sales in Q2 2025,” said DAC.
They also pointed out two areas where their comparables are less problematic: new vehicle dealers and aftermarket retail sales. Both showed robust growth, of 7.1% and 4.7%, respectively. These areas likely represent a more accurate picture of Canada’s market performance in Q1.
“While the hangover from 2024 complicates the 2025 retail sales numbers, looking forward (to) the added complexity of the ongoing tariff chaos will impact prices (and sales) in the auto sector for the rest of 2025,” said Andrew King, Managing Partner of DAC, in a statement. “While U.S. trade action against Canada has stabilized somewhat for the time being, we are still far away from any certainty.”
