Small parties will play key role in uncertain election outcome.
With the election called on Sept 11, all federal parties are getting their campaigns into full swing.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dropped the writ for a 40-day campaign and launched what could very well become one of the most unpredictable federal elections in recent history.
As it stands, only the Liberals and the Conservative have a realistic shot of winning the most seats. Both parties have been neck and neck and deadlocked in the polls after the Tories led for a few months in the spring following the SNC-Lavalin issue.
However, the outcome of the election would be determined by the regional races where the vote splits in the contentious ridings may bring some surprises.
Unlike the 2015 election, the Liberals come in this race with a record to defend. Their strategy during this campaign would be to tout their accomplishments — particularly around child poverty, climate change and jobs — while drawing a contrast between themselves and the other parties and steering the debate from the controversies during their tenure.
However, the outcome of the election would be determined by the regional races where the vote splits in the contentious ridings may bring some surprises.
The relentless media coverage over the SNC-Lavalin affair and the mishandling of the issue has dealt a major blow to the Liberal party but mostly to Trudeau’s personal brand.
Trudeau’s “Sunny Ways” are a lot cloudier for a government embattled with scandals. In fact, the day Trudeau called the election new details on the SNC-Lavalin case surfaced and the Prime Minister was forced to answer questions in this regard instead of discussing his plan for Canadians.
Despite these factors, the Liberals have a sizeable lead in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec on their main rivals. It seems that they are benefiting from a weak New Democratic Party at the outset of the horserace, especially in Quebec.
Jagmeet Singh and the NDP have not been successful yet at positioning themselves as an adequate alternative to the Liberals for the left-leaning and progressive voters. They lag far behind the Conservatives and Liberals nationally and in all major regional battlegrounds — GTA-905, Vancouver Island, Montreal, the Atlantic. Quebec has been the main factor behind the NDP wave in 2011 and recent success for the party.
They currently stand to lose the majority, if not all of their 14 seats in Quebec and are facing a massive exodus and defection of supporters to the Green Party in Atlantic Canada.
That being said the race remains extremely fluid and a lot can change between now and Election Day. As we all recall, the Liberals started behind the Harper Conservatives and Mulcair’s NDP in 2015 campaign but ended up rising from the third party in the House of Commons to winning a majority government.
Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives will dominate the Prairies and Alberta. It is almost assumed that they will sweep the vast majority of the seats in that region.
Scheer’s campaign will capitalize on the fact that Trudeau is disliked in Western Canada. They will focus their message on supporting the energy sector and scrapping the federal carbon tax to gain the maximum seats in these provinces.
The Conservatives will also benefit from the support of the conservative governments in power in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. However, a big win in the west will not be sufficient to propel Scheer to the Prime Minister’s office.
The road to victory for the Tories goes through Quebec and Ontario, particularly suburban Toronto — commonly referred to by pundits in Ottawa as the ‘905.’ The Conservatives will pick up a few more seats in Quebec. They will have to distance themselves from the highly unpopular Doug Ford Progressive Conservative if they hope to make any headwayin Ontario.
The Greens and the People’s Party of Canada are the wild cards this election. The Greens are stronger than ever. Some polls even have them ahead of the NDP nationally.
In regions like the Vancouver Island, they are very competitive and hope to steal a couple of seats from the New Democrats, making it a four-way race in this part of the country. They may surprise in Atlantic Canada, more specifically in New Brunswick and PEI where the provincial branches of the party have been strong in recent years.
The People’s Party of Canada, a dissident faction of the Conservative party led by Maxime Bernier, while they may not win any seats they can bar the Tories from winning in a few ridings in Quebec or the Prairies due to the vote split.
The Canadian political landscape has significantly changed since 2015. There has been a blue wave across the country, whether or not this will be emulated at the national level is uncertain. The Greens are stronger, holding the balance of power in BC and PEI. The right is divided again, the People’s Party of Canada can draw some important votes away from the Conservatives in tight races. All of these factors contribute to the unpredictability of this election.
The 40-day campaign is particularly important, not only for politicians to pitch their vision but also for Canadians to make an informed choice.
