In spite of downturn, 2018 is still on track to be the second-best sales year ever
What a difference a year makes! In September, 2017 new vehicle sales in Canada reached an apogee — the highest ever for the month and the greatest SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Rate) for any month, about 2.25-million.
But, in spite of a few more positive months, they’ve been on a relatively consistent decline since then, with September 2018 sales of 172,974 vehicles down 7.4% from that year-ago peak and a SAAR of just 1.92-million, according to DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC).
Given last September’s high comparative figure, that decline might seem inevitable, but this September’s sales weren’t just down from last year; they were the lowest for the month since 2014. And September was the seventh month in a row with sales below those of the same month a year ago.
According to Dennis DesRosiers, of DAC, “this is the largest year-over-year sales decrease Canada has experienced since August 2009 when sales dropped 7.9%.”
It is a cyclical industry, however, and it has enjoyed eight years of sustained sales growth, which is exceptional. “For the industry to continue to hover around the two-million sales mark, represents a very good year for the industry in Canada,” said David Adams, President of the Global Automakers of Canada. “That is starting to look like where we will land at the end of the year.”
Year-to-date sales of 1,565,910 units through the first three quarters are second only to last year for the same period and they’re down just 1.6% in aggregate, which leaves 2018 still on track to be the second-best sales year ever.
Supporting that potential, Dennis DesRosiers suggests that with the resolution of NAFTA negotiations, “the consumer confidence issue may be alleviated for the final three months of the year.”
Trouble at the top
While some brands did make gains in September — particularly those on the luxury side — every one of the top ten players by volume experienced a sales decline. As DesRosiers observed, “the overall market is sure to reflect a decrease given the performance of these higher-volume brands.”
What didn’t decline was the share of the market dominated by light trucks, including SUVs. While truck sales were down by 4.7% for the month, passenger-car sales fell by 13.7%. Through the first three quarters, light trucks accounted for 70.3% of the market, while passenger-cars claimed just 29.7% — a 2.6% shift in market share in favour of trucks, from a year ago.
Ford extends its lead
Despite a 14.1% decline in September from a year ago, Ford was again the number-one seller for the month with 26,531 vehicles sold. Sales of 239,218 units year-to-date are down 2.8% from last year, costing Ford 0.2% of market share, to 15.3%.
Still in second-place, General Motors’ sold 25,566 vehicles for the month, down 6.1% from last September. Year-to-date sales are down 0.3% but GM has gained 0.2% in market share, to 14.8%.
For the third month in a row, Toyota upset the established order to claim third place with 18,038 vehicles sold — in spite of an 8.0% decline for the month. Year-to-date, the Japanese brand remains in fourth place with 157,839 vehicles sold, up 0.8% from last year, supporting a 0.3% market share bump to 10.3%.
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) again ranked fourth in September, with sales of 17,698 new vehicles down 4.0% from a year ago. The Detroit stalwart maintained third place year-to-date, with 185,931 sales through the first nine months, but that total is down 12.8% from a year ago, giving up 1.5% in market share to 11.9%.
Honda retained its fifth-place ranking in September, with sales of 15,450 units down 4.3% from a year ago. Year-to-date sales of 139,753 vehicles through the first three-quarters are down 0.1% but market share is up by 0.1% to 8.9%.
Tight fights in the midfield
Nissan squeezed past Hyundai to reclaim sixth place for the month, with 11,929 sales, 2.3% from last September. That performance kept the Japanese brand in sixth place for the year-to-date as well, with total sales up 1.4%, and a 0.2% gain in market share to 6.8%.
Hyundai was close behind with 11,668 September sales, down 2.4% from a year ago. The Korean brand remained in seventh-place for the year-to-date also, with sales down by 3.5% and a 0.1% share decline 6.4%.
With 6,618 sales, Volkswagen rebounded in September to claim eighth place, although that figure reflected a 12.5% sales decline from a year ago. VW remained in 10th place for the year-to-date, however, with cumulative sales up 3.0% and a 0.2% increase in market share to 3.5%.
Mazda again ranked ninth for the month, with 6101 sales — a decline of 11.3%. It retained its eighth place year-to-date ranking, however, with a 3.1% cumulative increase and a 0.2% share boost to 3.8%.
Kia gave up two positions from the month before to rank 10th in September, with a dramatic 30.9% sales decline. Year-to-date, Kia remains ninth with sales now down by 3.3%, and market share off by 0.1% to 3.7%.
Subaru remained in 11th place but BMW surpassed perennial luxury-car leader Mercedes-Benz to claim 12th place for the month — though not year-to-date – and increase its cumulative lead over Audi.
Winners and losers
On a percentage basis, the biggest winners in September were Genesis (+170.0%), Volvo (+41.5%), Infiniti (+18.2%), Porsche (+13.2%) and Subaru (+9.4%).
The biggest losers, in percentage terms, were Maserati (-41.7%), Kia (-30.9%), Mercedes-Benz (-19.1%) Smart (-15.2%), and Ford (-14.1%).
