Cox Automotive expects the pace of U.S. new-vehicle sales to improve modestly in May as consumers continue purchasing vehicles despite economic uncertainty and rising fuel costs.
In a forecast released May 27, the company said the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales is expected to reach 16.1 million units, up from 15.9 million in April and ahead of the 15.6 million pace recorded in May 2025. Total new-vehicle sales volume is forecast to increase 0.1 per cent year-over-year and rise 7 per cent from April levels.
“May sales appear to be holding up despite significant economic uncertainty,” said Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist at Cox Automotive, in a statement.
Cox Automotive said the market continues to face competing economic pressures, including sharply higher fuel prices tied to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and historically low consumer sentiment. At the same time, the company said record-high stock markets, larger tax refunds and tax benefits earlier this year are continuing to support vehicle demand.
“New-vehicle buyers today are more affluent than ever, so they may not be as impacted by inflationary pressures as much as other consumers who are more acutely feeling the sharply higher fuel costs,” said Chesbrough.
He added that continued strength in the economy and stock market will likely remain critical to sustaining vehicle demand through the rest of the year.
Cox Automotive said the market is expected to remain in the high-15 million to low-16 million SAAR range, consistent with much of 2025 after a softer start to 2026.
The forecast suggests retail demand remains relatively resilient despite affordability concerns and broader economic volatility. However, the market’s continued dependence on higher-income consumers could create challenges for retailers targeting price-sensitive buyers facing elevated financing, insurance and fuel costs.
