Cox Automotive has raised its U.S. new-vehicle sales forecast for 2026, citing a market that has remained stronger than expected despite persistent affordability pressures.
The company now expects 16.1 million new vehicles to be sold this year, up from its previous forecast of 15.8 million. That would still leave sales about 1.2 per cent below 2025 levels. New retail sales are forecast at 13.1 million units, while fleet sales are expected to increase almost four per cent.
The revision follows a stronger sales pace since March. After averaging a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.1 million units in January and February, sales have averaged a 16.4-million pace since March. September’s SAAR is expected to finish near 16.3 million.
Affordability remains a significant challenge. The average new-vehicle transaction price reached US$50,090 in August, while incentives fell to 6.5 per cent of transaction prices. Cox said consumers are increasingly shifting toward more practical vehicles as they balance higher prices with household budgets.
Credit availability has improved, but borrowing costs remain high. The average new-vehicle loan payment crossed US$800 for the first time, reaching US$802 year to date, compared with US$782 last year.
Cox expects total U.S. used-vehicle sales of 38.5 million in 2026, essentially unchanged from last year, including 20.5 million retail sales.
