The December 2020 forecast for annual vehicle sales in the United States is anticipated to close at nearly 15.54 million units — down from November’s 15.6 million pace and down 16.8 million units year-over-year, according to Cox Automotive.
The 2020 month includes three more shopping days than last year and five more than in November. With the extra selling days, the sales volume is anticipated to rise 1.9% from year-earlier levels. But when volume is viewed on a seasonally adjusted basis, Cox Automotive said the sales pace is forecast to fall 7% from last December.
“December new-vehicle sales should show a year-over-year increase thanks to the three additional shopping days,” said Charles Chesbrough, Senior Economist at Cox Automotive. “But concerns about the virus, more state-directed lockdowns, and the ongoing economic recession are likely to constrain holiday sales.”
U.S. President Donald Trump approved a stimulus package this week that he had earlier vetoed. The passage of more government stimulus is good news for consumers and businesses, although it is not expected to impact the new-vehicle market “in any noticeable way” in December, said Chesbrough.
As for the 2020 year, the full sales forecast is expected to be down 15.3% year-over-year — the first year below 17 million sales since 2014. Sales declined 34.1% in the second quarter, but improved in the third and fourth quarters.
“This year presented the economy and the auto market with incredible challenges,” said Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist at Cox Automotive. “As we close the year, it is remarkable to see how well the industry performed. Retail vehicle sales will end the year down less than 10% despite losing six weeks of the most important time of the year.”
He said constraints on supply are likely to blame for achieving better volume performance, but most OEMs and dealers did manage to improve profitability due to limited supply and robust demand.
“We enter 2021 still battling the COVID-19 pandemic, but the distribution of vaccines gives us confidence that the economy and the auto market will both see continued progress once we get through the winter,” said Smoke.
