Canadian dealers keeping tabs on new vehicle sales in the United States can expect November sales to maintain a steady seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.0 million, according to a Cox Automotive forecast.
In its latest update, the company said the anticipated November SAAR is consistent with the sales pace seen in October, and represents an increase from November 2023’s rate of 15.5 million. They also said sales volume is expected to reach 1.32 million in November, which is 1.3% lower than October but 6.6% more than a one year ago — underlining differences in the number of selling days compared to last month and last year.
“With the U.S. election now in the rearview mirror, we may see vehicle sales finish the year in a strong position,” said Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist at Cox Automotive, in a statement. “With less uncertainty in the market, consumer confidence is moving higher, which will likely increase consumer willingness to buy a new vehicle.”
Chesbrough added that vehicle affordability is improving due to higher incentives and lower auto loan rates, two things that should increase consumers’ ability to buy.
Data from Cox Automotive revealed that new vehicle inventory volume topped 3.0 million units at the start of November — the first time since the pandemic began, and higher by more than 677,000 units compared to November 2023. On electric vehicles, the company said the election sparked “much speculation about the potential effects of a new administration on the auto market,” particularly around EVs and emissions standards.
“We may see an increase in electric vehicle and plug-in hybrid sales over the next few months as buyers move to take advantage of discounts that may disappear in 2025,” said Chesbrough. “There is concern that federal tax credits for EVs and PHEVs may be reduced or eliminated when the new administration takes office.”
As a result, he said EV sales could experience tailwinds that lead to more “robust” consumer activity until the end of the year.
