Some recovery from the software outage is expected when reviewing July new-vehicle sales in the United States, according to a Cox Automotive forecast.
The widespread outage impacted sales and reporting last month, but Cox Automotive said the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in July is anticipated to increase to 16.0 million. That represents an improvement from the prior month’s 15.3 million low.
“July new-vehicle sales are expected to finish within the range of 15-16 million, as it has consistently over the last year,” said Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist at Cox Automotive, in a statement. “However, July sales will likely include some sales that were delayed from June, which should push the market toward the upper end of the sales range.”
How much is unknown, but Chesbrough added that tens of thousands of vehicles may have been affected. He said fleet sales also remain unknown, but they will be an important factor in July’s result. “Fleet sales can lift or suppress the monthly sales pace, and recent trends suggest less activity from this channel.”
July sales volume is anticipated to drop to 1.29 million — down 1.3% from 2023 and 3% from last month, based on Kelley Blue Book sales estimates. Monthly new-vehicle sales volume averaged 1.31 million units monthly new-vehicle sales volume averaged 1.31 million units throughout the first half of 2024.
Cox Automotive also said in its news release that total new-vehicle sales for 2024 are expected to reach 15.7 million — up from 2023. It would also represent the best year since 2019.
