A new forecast released by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive reports in the U.S. total new-vehicle sales for September 2022 are projected to reach 1,120,279 units, an 11.8% increase from September 2021. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 13.6 million units, up 1.5 million units from 2021.
New-vehicle total sales for Q3 2022 are projected to reach 3,374,500 units, a 0.2% increase from Q3 2021. New-vehicle total sales for year-to-date Q3 2022 are projected to reach 10,156,000 units, a 13.3% decrease from year-to-date Q3 2021.
“Traditionally, September is a high-volume sales month as manufacturers implement promotions for Labor Day to clear out old model-year vehicles and start sales of the new model-year products, said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. “This September, while holiday promotions were nearly nonexistent, modest improvements in vehicle production allowed manufacturers to tap pent-up consumer demand. The result is a retail sales pace that shows a modest increase from a year ago but still falls below its potential due to tight vehicle availability. Although rising interest rates are putting pressure on affordability, transaction prices still rose and consumers spent more money on new vehicles this month than any previous September on record.”
According to the forecast, September is on track to be the 16th consecutive month that retail inventory closes below one million units. Dealerships are continuing to pre-sell vehicles in their delivery pipeline. This month, 53% of vehicles will be sold within 10 days of arriving at a dealership, while the average number of days a new vehicle is in a dealer’s possession before being sold is on pace to be 20 days—down from 23 days a year ago.
It should be noted that September 2021 was the second month where inventory shortages had a significant influence on new-vehicle sales. Hence, while sales this month will increase compared to prior year levels, the annualized sales rate remains well below historical norms.
“A deeper dive into September results shows that while demand continues to exceed supply, several key financial results are either showing slower growth or have plateaued” said King.
