Estimated sales of 113,224 new vehicles in Canada in May represented a 44.0% decline from the same month last year. And that’s good news! While it is a dramatic loss of sales for what should be the strongest month of the year in normal times, it is a huge improvement from the 74.6% decline that decimated the market in April. And it is tangible evidence that a recovery from the depths of the COVID-19 crisis has at least begun.
While the the SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Rate) for May, based on DesRosiers Automotive Consultants’ (DAC) estimates, was just in the range of 1.1-million, that is more than double April’s figure and better than that of March as well, so it is encouraging in direction at least.
Estimated total sales of 488,165 units through May are down 38.9% from the same period last year, which just might represent the nadir of that curve if subsequent months can improve on May’s performance. So there is reason for optimism.
Dealerships are slowly reopening, albeit with reduced hours or appointment-only visits in some provinces, and customers are coming back and buying cars.
“Governments — at all levels — seem to be following through on the promise of reopening the country and breathing life back into the economy,” said DAC’s Dennis DesRosiers. “So, a touch of optimism for the coming weeks is warranted — and attention can be focused toward the shape and the speed that the recovery will follow.”
DesRosiers cautioned, however, that the ongoing situation remains in flux and an already trying year could prove to have more surprises in store.
At best, the balance of the year is likely to see a significant reduction in total sales, even if retail consumer confidence returns and pent-up demand materializes. That’s because fleet sales have already been dramatically reduced by pandemic impacts on the businesses that support them and are unlikely to bounce back immediately.
Limited results available for individual brands
Toyota joined the extensive list of automakers no longer reporting Canadian sales on a monthly basis in May, making any valid rankings effectively impossible. Of those few that did report, Year-over-year declines for the month appeared to be grouped in the negative 40-50% range, as would be expected given the overall tally.
All automakers are scheduled to report second-quarter results at the end of June, so those figures should give us a better sense of where the market, as well as individual brands are and where their sales are tending.
