Down the Hatch

Parting words from the CADA’s Chief Economist

For those of you have not heard the news (most of you), this will be my final column (rant) in this fine publication. After a decade as CADA’s Chief Economist, I will be this month, as the saying has it, pursuing other opportunities.

It has been a hell of a decade for me and, more importantly, the industry. If you’ll indulge me one final time, a little retrospective is in order.

I started this job in November 2008, which those of you with long memories and a love of pain will recall was the very month the downturn started in earnest in the Canadian car market.

For the first ten months of that fateful year, sales were tracking at a record level. Then November struck, I was hired by Rick Gauthier, and the bottom came out. In my native Newfoundland we would have said the arse went right out of it in November 2008. Have I mentioned I love my editors? In any event, I started the gig, and the industry went very nearly to hell. Draw from those two events in the same month what conclusions you will.

In my first week on the job I found myself on a media stage on Parliament Hill in Ottawa with Mr. Gauthier and Huw Williams, CADA’s long-serving director of public affairs and the Association’s vital connection to all things political and government-related. Rick did most of the talking as I tried my best to remain vertical under the intense lights of the national media, wondering (I hope silently) what series of decisions in life had led me to such a set of circumstances that day.

The result of that event and the advocacy push that came with it was a $12 billion dollar Canadian Secured Credit Facility to backstop automotive credit markets that had all but seized up when Lehman Brothers went the way of the dodo on Manhattan Island. For me it was an intense if exhilarating start to a job that has given me a PhD level course in an amazing industry in this country over the last decade.

The next year was the worst one in a long time for our members and many other sectors of our economy. Reeling from recession, we lost nearly 20 per cent of our sales in 2009, a huge shock for any sector. The only consolation, such as it was, was that it was not as bad as the Armageddon south of the border where U.S. dealers lost nearly half their sales almost overnight.

Since that challenging time, and the dealer consolidation that took place in its wake that was painful for many, things of course have been much more positive for the industry.

Last year marked our fifth straight record year for sales and the first ever two million market. This year we’re right on pace for a similar (if not quite another record) year. Even in the context of very slightly declining sales, revenues this year for dealers are up strongly as the consumer marches in ever-greater numbers from smaller to larger cars.

At the Association level, John White has been in the CEO chair for two and a half years now and is leading the organization to the next level in terms of growth and member services.

So I feel vindicated in leaving the industry in the state it’s in, especially after that inauspicious start all those years ago. Also, if I can’t take the credit for the booming sales we’ve seen in recent years, surely no blame for 2008 belongs to me either. Right?

For the writer, the greatest gift that readers can give is simple: to read.

If you are willing to devote the ten minutes of your day that it takes to read this, then that is no small victory for me, or any writer.

I am operating in a hyper-competitive market for clicks, time, and eyeballs.

If you’ve made it this far, chances are you’ll make it to the end, with a decent likelihood you have once or twice before over the past decade.

For giving me those ten precious minutes per month, I will be forever grateful, whether the piece had you nodding in agreement (doubtful) or rolling your eyes (almost certainly). Thank you, and goodbye.

(Editor’s note: We will miss Michael’s insights, clever writing style and entertaining presentations at various dealer events. The Canadian auto dealer team thanks him for his columns and wishes him the best in his new gig.)

About Michael Hatch

Michael Hatch is chief economist for the Canadian Automobile Dealers Association (CADA). He can be reached at mhatch@cada.ca.

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