Car sales may be slowing in response to the U.S market maturing — but not as a result of Donald Trump’s election, says National Automobile Dealers Association chief economist, Steven Szakaly. While the election may have caused some immediate market disruption, the long-term view shows reason for optimism.
Writing in the NADA Headlines newsletter, Szakaly says that markets may react poorly in the short term as companies cut back on hiring and corporate expenditures. But in the medium and longer terms, “Trump’s stated or understood policy objectives will produce significant positive tailwinds, particularly as they direct us to lower corporate taxes, increased infrastructure spending, and reduced regulation across all aspects of business,” he says.
Negative influences, such as Trumps views on free trade and immigration, require a nuanced look, he says.
“Trump has been notably silent on the status of H1B visa grants for highly educated workers, and, given his general pro-business posture, it is not completely out of the realm of possibility that the H1B visa program gets expanded under a Trump administration, which would be a boon to U.S. economic growth,” he says.
And even if Trump wants to put an end to NAFTA, he’ll be hampered by lengthy exit negotiations, with negative effects not occurring for years, Szakaly says.
“What’s needed is clarity,” he says. “A clear set of economic policy goals delivered before the New Year would go a long way to ensuring that any immediate uncertainties are smoothed out.”