The challenge with autonomous cars

Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk made headlines when he predicted the company will have autonomous robo-taxis on the road in 2020 — but that timeframe seems unlikely, according to research from Warwick Business School and Jaguar Land Rover.

They argue that, while there is evidence of “impressive progress” in a vehicle’s capability to sense its surroundings, we still need to consider how the Artificial Intelligence required for autonomous cars will interact with other road users. How will these vehicles co-exist with human drivers, cyclists, and pedestrians?

“Alan Turing famously challenged future generations to create a machine that would be indistinguishable from a person through the medium of written language,” said Nick Chater, professor of behavioural science at Warwick Business School. “The future of fully autonomous vehicles depends on science meeting a similar challenge — creating computer systems that drive in a way that blends seamlessly and safely with human drivers.”

He said “negotiating the traffic” is not merely a figure of speech, but something that involves a process of tacit negotiation with other road users in a safe environment. It’s important that everyone reach the same (or compatible) agreements to prevent potential accidents.

“Creating a machine that can replicate that process involves addressing fundamental questions at the frontiers of cognitive science. Human interactions are so effortless that we are unaware of the complex reasoning involved,” said Chater. “The rate of progress on this challenge may prove a decisive limiting factor in the development of autonomous vehicles.”

Tesla’s vehicles must also receive regulatory approval before hitting public roads.

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