As we have now come to expect, auto sales in Canada in October fell below those of the same month a year ago, for the eighth month in a row. But, as has been the case for most of those prior months, they weren’t a lot below. Sales of 161,125 new vehicles were down 1.9% from last October — about 3,000 vehicles. But that tally is still the second-best ever for the month.
The same is true for the year 2018, to date. In spite of those eight months of decline, the year’s 1,727,035 sales through October, while down 1.6% from last year, are the second-best ever for the period. And they’re fully 3.9% ahead of the same period in 2016, which was a new all-time record at that time.
Indeed, it’s not that long ago when 1.7-million sales for a full year, not just 10 months, were heralded as a huge success.
As important as the overall numbers, October’s SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Rate), just shy of 2.0-million according to DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC), suggests some leveling off of the gradual decline that began about a year ago. It has remained relatively stable around that level for three of the past four months.
While it now seems likely that 2018’s full year sales will be the second-best ever, what happens in the final two months of the year will provide a better indication of what to expect going forward. Monthly sales from a year ago had already begun to fall off dramatically so if the year-over-year comparisons continue to decline, there will be real cause for concern.
“We’ve seen interest rates rise and, despite a rather significant increase in consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board of Canada, that confidence does not seem to have extended to big ticket items like vehicles that are more sensitive to interest rate increases,” said David Adams, president of the Global Automakers of Canada (GAC).
As has become the norm, all the decline is on the passenger-car side of the ledger. Light trucks, including SUVs, further increased their hold on the market in October, accounting for 71.8% of all sales. Their total numbers increased by just 0.2% from a year ago, but those for passenger cars decreased by 6.9%, leaving them with a 29.5% market share, year-to-date, compared to 70.5% for trucks. That’s a 2.6% shift toward trucks from a year ago.
Still volatile at the top
General Motors reclaimed the monthly sales lead for October with 23,374 vehicles sold. On a percentage basis, that was a 12.9% decline from a year ago, but only because GM’s October sales last year were exceptionally high.
Ford’s 21,414 October sales relegated it to second place for the month, in spite of being up 1.6% from a year ago. Year-to date, Ford maintains a narrowing lead with 260,632 vehicles sold (-2.4%), compared to GM’s 255,169 sales (-1.6%). Ford commands a 15.1% market share YTD, down 0.1% from last year, compared to 14.8% for GM, unchanged from a year ago.
Once again, for the fourth month in a row, Toyota displaced FCA for third place, with 18,038 sales, a 9.9% gain for the month. Year-to-date, however, Toyota remains in fourth place with 176,595 vehicles sold, up 1.7% from last year. The leading Japanese brand’s 10.2% market share is up 0.3% from a year ago.
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) was again relegated to fourth place in October, with sales of 14,669 vehicles down 14.8% from a year ago. Year-to-date, however, FCA maintains third place with 200,600 sales. That total is down 12.9% from this time last year, resulting in a 1.5% loss in market share to 11.6%.
Honda maintained fifth place in October, with sales of 14,301 vehicles off 8.7% from a year ago. For the year-to-date, Honda’s 144,054 sales are down 0.9%, leaving its market share stable at 8.9%.
Hyundai and Nissan head-to-head
The fight for sixth place was the tightest in the industry in October, with Hyundai’s 11,373-vehicle tally (+12.0%) narrowly surpassing Nissan’s 11,296-unit total (+7.7%).
Nissan remains firmly in sixth place for the year-to-date, however, with 117,574 sales, up 2.0%, compared to 111,011 (-2.1%) for Hyundai. Nissan holds a 6.8% market share (+0.2%) and Hyundai 6.4% (-0.1%).
Volkswagen took firm control of eighth place in October, with 7,105 sales, up 6.3% from last year. The German icon remains 10th overall for the year-to-date, however, with 61,468 vehicles sold, an increase of 3.4%. VW’s market share of 3.6% is up 0.2% from 2017.
Mazda once again ranked ninth for the month with its 5,979 sales down by 3.9%, and it retained that ranking for the year-to-date as well, with 64,778 sales, up 2.2%. The Japanese brand claims 3.8% of the market, YTD, a 0.2% increase.
Kia was relegated to 10th for the month with 5,626 sales, down 4.1%, although it remains ninth for the year-to-date, with 63.407 units sold, down by 3.4%. Kia’s market share remains unchanged, however, at 3.7%.
Subaru, in 11th place with its best October ever, came just 126 units short of overtaking Kia, and luxury leader Mercedes-Benz regained 12th, after giving it up last month to BMW. The latter further increased its lead over Audi for second-place among luxury brands.
Winners and losers
On a percentage basis, the biggest winners in March were Genesis (+175.0%), Land Rover (+20.9%), Porsche (+19.5%) and Hyundai (+12.0%).
The biggest losers, in percentage terms, were Maserati (-26.7%), Infiniti (-14.8%) and GM (-12.9%).
