The automotive industry has always evolved — but the pace, scope, and unpredictability have never been greater.
Over the past 20 years that Canadian auto dealer has been publishing, the automotive industry, both in Canada and globally, has undergone tremendous change.
I looked back on my columns and discovered, much to my surprise, that I’ve been writing for Canadian auto dealer for fourteen of those twenty years.
As I reflected on that, and on Canadian auto dealer’s two decades of providing relevant, informative Canadian automotive industry insight, the title for this piece crystallized naturally.
So many aspects of the automotive industry, and the environment in which it operates, have changed — sometimes at breakneck speed — over those 14 years.
I think the quote attributed to Mary Barra, CEO of General Motors, a number of years ago is more relevant today than ever. She noted that the auto industry would change more in the next five years than it had in the previous 50. When things move that fast, nothing is certain.
When I first started writing for Canadian auto dealer, the transition to electrification in Canada was still in its infancy, with only a handful of electric vehicles on offer.
In 2011, Canada sold 10,624 electric vehicles — about 0.65 per cent of total sales — while in 2023, 324,433 EVs were sold, representing more than 18.9 per cent of total sales, with over 100 models on the road.
In 2011, no jurisdiction in Canada had a ZEV mandate. By 2025, however, manufacturers and dealers are facing three mandates: one federal and two provincial, with Quebec being the first to implement one in 2018, followed by British Columbia in 2019. The federal government passed its own ZEV mandate, the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, in late 2023.
She noted that the auto industry would change more in the next five years than it had in the previous 50. When things move that fast, nothing is certain.
For the industry, the provincial ZEV mandates meant more advocacy with provincial governments than ever before. I’d like to think those efforts, along with current challenges around EV adoption — from both the federal and provincial governments pulling incentive funding (except Quebec, where it’s set to sunset in 2027) and ongoing infrastructure gaps — have given governments pause to rethink mandates with unrealistic sales targets.
Indeed, current EV sales penetration sits around nine per cent, compared to almost 19 per cent at the end of 2023. Electrification remains the industry’s future, but that transition can only move as fast as consumers are willing to adopt the technology. What remains certain is how uncertain the transition timeline will be.
In 2011, no one could have imagined that a TV reality show host and real estate mogul named Donald Trump would find his way to the Oval Office — not once, but twice — over the past fourteen years.
The first Trump presidency only hinted at the size and scale of change, not only in America but around the world, that has unfolded since he first took office in January of this year.
Importantly, during his first term, the President followed through on a campaign promise to renegotiate the NAFTA trade agreement, which had provided a predictable, rules-based trading regime between Canada, the United States, and Mexico for nearly a quarter century.
As a result, NAFTA became CUSMA (or USMCA, depending on where you are), and automakers had to rework supply chains to meet higher regional value content requirements, jumping to 75 per cent from 62.5 under NAFTA, along with new thresholds for engines, steel, aluminum, and labour content, among others.
The renegotiated trade agreement also introduced a new degree of uncertainty into Canada’s most important trading relationship, given that the U.S. accounts for 77 per cent of Canada’s goods exports.
The U.S. insisted on a review clause. This means the agreement will expire 16 years after coming into force — in 2036 — unless all parties agree to renew it for another 16 years.
If any party declines to renew after the first six-year review (in July 2026), the agreement would enter annual reviews to resolve outstanding issues. Should they be resolved, the agreement would continue for another 16-year term. This process is in addition to the right of any party to terminate the agreement with six months’ notice.
Those provisions hardly create a stable foundation for Canada-U.S. trade moving forward.
If the past year has taught us anything, it’s that the rules-based international trade system Canada has relied on for more than 25 years — and for over 60 in the automotive sector — has been replaced by something far less predictable.
Trade turmoil and the challenges of managing the propulsion technology shift are just two sources of uncertainty the sector has faced over the fourteen years I’ve been writing for Canadian auto dealer.
Add in a global pandemic, which accelerated the shift toward online sales and distribution models while exposing the fragility of global supply chains and sole-source suppliers, and you have a perfect storm of unpredictability for the industry to contend with.
In my 38 years in the industry, I have never seen a period like the one we’re living through now.
While the challenges are real and uncertainty looms large, one thing has always defined the automotive industry: its resilience. The people in it have faced countless disruptions before and found a way forward.
So while the industry’s future may be unclear at the moment, I am certain it will continue — and, if we play our cards right, it will prosper in Canada.
