As part of its E-Vision Intelligence Report, J.D. Power is projecting a reset for electric vehicle adoption in the United States this year, due to new market dynamics.
Those new market dynamics include the Trump administration’s intend on ending the $7,500 federal Clean Vehicle Tax Credit that was launched under the Biden administration.
Based on this, tariff uncertainty, and continued frustration with public charging, J.D. Power projects the pace of EV retail share growth to level off in 2025, holding at 9.1 per cent of the total automobile marketplace — or 1.2 million vehicles sold.
They have also forecasted that the EV market will reach 26 per cent retail share by 2030. J.D. Power said this was “approximately half of the market share the Biden administration targeted in its climate agenda.”
On mass market EV adoption, they said a major trend that took root in 2024 and will be important in determining the future of EV market growth has been the expansion of the mass market segment.
“In 2021, mainstream franchise EV sales accounted for just 0.8 per cent of total EV market share. In 2024, that number rose to 2.9 per cent, as EVs from the likes of Chevrolet, Ford, Honda, Hyundai and Kia surged in popularity,” the company said in its update.
“A total of 376,000 units were sold in the mass market EV segment in 2024, and that trend appears to be holding steady as more mainstream EVs come to market,” J.D. Power added.
They said the key to the future of the EV market lies in more growth rates across the U.S., in addition to more charging infrastructure — two things that seem unlikely, at the moment, under the Trump administration.
