May new-vehicle sales in the United States are anticipated to show a slower sales level from March and April’s tariff-inspired buying surge when the figures are revealed this week, according to a Cox Automotive forecast.
In an update, the company said the May seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, is expected to reach around 16.0 million. That’s up slightly from May 2024’s 15.8 million, though it also represents a notable decline from March 2025’s 17.8 million and April’s 17.3 million pace.
Overall, Cox Automotive said May’s sales volume is anticipated to increase 3.2% from last year and 2.5% from last month. They did, however, add that this month’s gains are overstated since May has one more selling day than May 2024 and April 2025.
“The vehicle market has been particularly strong since new tariff announcements in March, as many vehicle shoppers who were considering buying this year decided to pull ahead their purchase, before higher prices hit the market,” said Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist at Cox Automotive, in a statement. “However, much of that pull-ahead demand has now been satiated, so consumer demand is expected to fall this month.”
Cox Automotive’s data pointed to March and April’s strong vehicle sales paving the way for tighter inventory levels. New-vehicle inventory at the beginning of May was 2.49 million units on U.S. dealer lots, which translates to a decline of 7.4% when compared to the start of April. It’s also lower by 10.5% from a year ago. “Days’ supply was 66 at the beginning of May, down six days from the previous measure at the start of April,” said the company in its update.
In a statement, Chesbrough said available inventory on dealer lots dropped noticeably over recent weeks. “Finding the right vehicle will be more challenging for shoppers. Additionally, prices will be high as existing inventory becomes less available and more valuable due to tariffs on incoming replacement supply. As more tariffed products replace existing inventory over the summer, prices are expected to be pushed higher, leading to slower sales in the coming months.”
