A joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData anticipates that new vehicle sales for May 2025 in the United States, including retail and non-retail transactions, will be flat from a year ago — reaching 1,489,800 units.
When comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days, the result is an increase of 3.4% from 2024. J.D. Power also expects the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) to be 15.6 million units, which is down 0.1 million units from May 2024.
For May 2025 new-vehicle retail sales, they are projecting 1,235,700 units, an increase of 1.1% from a year earlier. When comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days, the result is an increase of 5.0% from 2024.
“Following the surge in vehicle purchases in March and April, driven by the fear of tariff-related price increases, May sales reflect a more tempered market,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power, in a statement. “While many May sales were made by shoppers who accelerated their purchases, the sales benefit is being muted by the payback from shoppers who purchased in March and April instead of May.”
King said approximately 149,000 extra vehicles were sold in March and April thanks to buyers re-timing their purchases on the expectation that prices would increase in the future. He said these re-timed sales will present a headwind to the sales pace for the balance of this year. Still, retail demand for new vehicles remains strong and retail sales are expected to climb 1.1% over the same period in 2024.
“The threat of higher vehicle prices has yet to materialize in a meaningful way. Most manufacturers have made explicit commitments to maintain stable vehicle prices for the near-term,” said King in a statement. “The consumer rush to showrooms in March and April did drive prices slightly higher, but the return to a more typical sales pace in May has led to a stabilization of average prices.”
In May 2025, the average new-vehicle retail transaction price is expected to reach $45,462. That’s up $649 or 1.4% from a year ago, though down $592 or 1.3% from April 2025.
