Another month of steady year-over-year growth in September (+6.4 per cent) keeps Canadian new-vehicle sales on track for a near-record year. With 143,143 light vehicles sold, it was the best result for the month since way back in 2000. Three-quarters of the way through 2012, year-to-date sales are running 6.6 per cent ahead of this time last year. Just as important, they’re 5.9 per cent ahead of the five-year average for the period.
If the final three months of 2012 maintain the same pace as the past three, full-year sales will exceed 1.69 million, making it the second-best year ever. Even if sales just keep pace with 2011 for the rest of the year, they’ll exceed 1.66 million. In terms of SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), September was the fifth month this year to exceed 1.7 million (per DesRosiers Automotive Consultants), confirming the stability of the current sales pace and right in line with the full-year projection.
While 2012 won’t quite achieve a sales record, the strong finish that appears to be shaping up for the year makes a good starting point for record Canadian sales in 2013, suggests Dennis DesRosiers. Most of the trends that have dominated the year continued to play out in September.
Import brand sales as a group were up by 11.6 per cent – substantially ahead of the market average – while the Detroit Three brands collectively advanced just 0.3 percent from last year, dropping well below the market mean.
Passenger cars, too, continued to show strength, advancing by 15.0 per cent from the same month last year while truck sales stayed precisely flat. Both Honda (+21.0 per cent) and Toyota (+21.6 per cent) continued their impressive comeback in September, keeping their year-to-date gains at 26.1 and 25.6 per cent, respectively, over last year.
Unlike many of the other mainstream players (GM excluded), whose year-to-date sales are substantially ahead of their five year averages, both Honda (-1.7 per cent) and Toyota (-1.7 per cent) are still running behind those levels, suggesting there’s more to come from both brands yet. General Motors’ sales have fallen 25.0 per cent behind their five-year average, year-to-date. That being said, GM’s September sales were up (11.6 per cent) from last year, beating the market, while Ford’s (-8.0 per cent) fell behind and Chrysler’s (+1.4 per cent) just held pace.
